Saturday, November 1, 2008

Fundamentals remain sound, but...

According the the government, Singapore's fundamentals remain sound. I suppose it means that our economy remains competitive, and relevant, compared to other developed economies. However, a quick skim of the headlines on channelnewsasia.com today suggests that however strong our "fundamentals" are, it is going to be irrelevant in the short term.

The following is every single headline from the Singapore section of channel news asia. Every news headline today concerns the economy.

"Manufacturing sector's outlook dims as external demand weakens"

"Analysts, developers applaud MND's move to reduce land sales"
(due to insufficient demand that might result in lower than usual bids)

"Singapore shares close mixed as investors turn cautious"

"UOB's Q3 profit down 5.1% as financial crisis hits"

" 800 workers retrenched after wafer fab plan collapse"

" CapitaLand's net profit drops 26% to S$419m in Q3"

"Services sector less upbeat about business prospects for next 6 months"

"Chartered turns in net loss of US$24.4m in Q3"

"Asian tech outlook down; relief to be found in BRIC economies"

"Future investment in S$6.3b solar plant may be affected"

Can it get any more gloomy for the economy? The only positive news comes from SMRT.

"SMRT posts 7% rise in H1 earnings to S$82.9m"

It is usually not a good sign when multiple sectors of the economy are weak and the only good news is that a transport operator that operates only in Singapore and has a near monopoly with very inelastic demand for its transport services has posted a good increase in earnings. According to its media release, the rise in revenue is attributed to rise in ridership and rental and advertising revenue. Though I can't see how much of the change in revenue is attributed to which component. Which I suppose is better than a rise in revenue attributed to rise in fares.

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